Bulgaria has registered an increase in its foreign direct investment in January-March 2012 year-on-year, according to the latest data of the Bulgarian National Bankreleased Wednesday.

According to preliminary data, the Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for January – March 2012 amounted to EUR 236.8 M (0.6% of GDP), compared to a negativeFDI of EUR 42.2 M (0.1% of GDP) for January – March 2011.

Bulgaria’s attracted Equity Capital (acquisition/disposal of shares and equities in cash and contributions in kind by non-residents in/from the capital and reserves of Bulgarian enterprises and receipts/payments from/for real estate deals in the country) for January – March 2012 amounted to EUR 180.3 M.

It decreased by EUR 51.9 M compared to the equity capital attracted in the same period of 2011 (EUR 232.2 million).

Bulgaria’s receipts from real estate investments of non-residents amounted to EUR 44.9 M, up from EUR 37 M attracted in January – March 2011.

The other capital, net (the change in the net liabilities of the direct investment enterprise to the direct investor on financial loans, suppliers’ credits and debt securities) was positive, amounting to EUR 38.6 M in January – March 2011, compared to a negative other capital, net of EUR 299.3 M in January – March 2011.

Based on preliminary data on profit/loss, Bulgaria’s Reinvested Earnings (the share of non-residents in the undistributed earnings/ loss of the enterprise) in January – March 2012 were estimated at EUR 17.9 M, compared with EUR 24.8 M in the same period of 2011.

By country, the largest direct investments in Bulgaria for the period January – March 2012 were those of the Netherlands (EUR 257.1 M) and Switzerland (EUR 98.4 M).

Bulgaria’s largest negative investment flows for the period were towards Germany (EUR -152.3 M), Greece (EUR -61.8 M) and UK (EUR -49.9 M) mainly due to net payments on intercompany credits in accordance with the loan repayment schedules of enterprises.

By branch, Bulgaria’s largest investments for January – March 2012 were in Electricity, gas and water supply (EUR 118.9 M). Bulgaria’s largest net payments in the reporting period were in Real estate, renting and business activities (EUR -35.2 M).

According to preliminary data in January – March 2012, Bulgaria’s direct investment abroad increased by EUR 20.7 M, compared to EUR 44 million in January – March 2011.

Bulgaria‘s growth continues to slow, mostly reflecting external headwinds, but there is room for optimism due to the expected euro area recovery in the second half of the year, IMF mission chief for Bulgaria has said.

“Real GDP growth is projected to reach 0.8% in 2012, which is lower than our previous forecast. Growth is expected to rise moderately to 1.5% in 2013, which shows we have taken into account the forecast for the euro area,” IMF mission headCatriona Purfield said in an interview for Capital daily after the end of the mission visit to Sofia.

The projected growth also reflects the expected euro area growth recovering in the second half of the year, which will allow exports to regain their position as the major driving force behind Bulgaria‘s economy, she pointed out.

Mrs Purfield singled out stronger EU funds absorption by Bulgaria and prudent policy as the key incentives for attracting more foreign direct investments and boosting growth.

Asked about the consistent rise in deposits in Bulgarian banks, Mrs Purfield said people are uncertain about their future, mostly because of external headwinds, and are seeking to safeguard their savings.

“The banking system remains well capitalized, liquid, profitable, and well supervised, which is why I think that it is doing very well amid the ongoing crisis,” she pointed out.

The IMF mission chief for Bulgaria stressed tapping international markets to secure funds to cover both future rollover needs and bolster the reserve would be a good option.

Mrs Purfield reiterated that at this juncture Bulgaria should increase the fiscal reserve, and to avoid steps that would reduce it.

“Strong fiscal buffers will ensure Bulgaria‘s resilience and safeguard this resilience going forward,” she said.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Sofia during May 2–9, 2012, to discuss economic developments and government policies with the Bulgarian authorities.

While the IMF projected gross domestic product growth of 0.8% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013, the European Commission revised sharply downwards its forecast forBulgaria‘s economy, estimating it is to grow just 0.5% this year.

According to Brussels the European Union economy is in a “mild recession,” with a recovery “forecast to set in slowly from the second half of the year on”.

The European Union executive previously estimated that the economy of the Balkan country will grow 1.4% this year due to worsening growth prospects in key trading partners across Europe and stagnant domestic demand.

Last month Bulgarian analysts and institutions unanimously cut their growth forecast for 2012 to just below 1.5% instead of the previously forecast 2-3%, citing slumping exports and stagnant domestic demand.

The central bank BNB estimated Bulgaria‘s economic growth to slow-down to 0.7% in 2012, citing the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area.

Bulgaria‘s economy expanded by 1.7% in 2011.

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Bulgaria should prudently increase the fiscal reserve and steer clear of reducing it,IMF mission has concluded at the end of its visit here.

“Fiscal buffers need to be raised to safeguard resilience. At this juncture, it would be prudent to increase the fiscal reserve, and to avoid steps that would reduce it,” IMFmission chief Catriona Purfield said in a statement.

The Bulgarian government wants to allow its Silver Fund, set up to anchor the public pension system, to also invest in bonds issued by national and local administrations. At the moment, only foreign securities with an adequate credit rating may be purchased.

Last month the European Central Bank strongly advised Bulgaria against investing the assets of the state fund for guaranteeing the stability of the state pension system in domestic assets.

According to the ECB, the fact that Bulgarian securities would not require a rating could place the Bulgarian government in “a privileged position compared to other issuers.”

Another concern is that provisions allowing the Silver Fund to channel up to 70% of its portfolio on Bulgarian bonds by 2016 could lead to skewed yields not driven purely by the markets.

Bulgaria‘s central bank BNB has also vehemently criticized the draft law, saying it puts at risk the already accumulated funds, as well as the country’s financial stability, but the finance minister has made it clear he will stick to his proposal.

The IMF meanwhile approved of the government’s plans to float a eurobond issue this year.

“Tapping international markets to secure funds to cover both future rollover needs and bolster the reserve would be a good option,” Purfield said Thursday.

Bulgaria plans to tap international markets at the end of May or in June to raise funds to repay about EUR 835 M (USD 1.07 B) in 11-year eurobonds maturing on January 15, 2013.

The bonds offered on international markets will be worth up to BGN 2 B.

According to unconfirmed information Finance Minister Simeon Djankov has decided to go for a five-year maturity partly because of the low indicative prices that the three financial institutions offered – less than a 4% yield – on bonds with that maturity.

The IMF also confirmed its spring World Economic Outlook, which reduced the 2012 economic growth projection for Bulgaria by almost half. The country’s gross domestic product growth is expected to reach 0.8% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013.

Bulgaria‘s economic growth is expected to slow-down to 1.2% in 2012 in the wake of the continued crisis in the eurozone and stagnant domestic demand, according to Citigroup analysts.

GDP growth next year is forecast at 2.5%.

Interestingly the financial institution warns that the next general elections, due in the middle of 2013, may undermine the implementation of key structural reforms in the coutry.

Earlier this month Bulgarian analysts and institutions unanimously cut their growthforecast for 2012 to just below 1.5% instead of the previously forecast 2-3%, citing slumping exports and stagnant domestic demand.

The central bank BNB estimated Bulgaria‘s economic growth to slow-down to 0.7% in 2012, citing the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area.

Bulgaria‘s government and the European Commission recently revised downwards their forecast for the economy of the Balkan country, estimating it is to grow 1.4% this year due to worsening growth prospects in key trading partners across Europe and stagnant domestic demand.

Meanwhile a Sofia-based think-tank warned that Bulgaria‘s economy hovers on the brink of its second recession in three years in the wake of the slump in the eurozone.

Bulgaria‘s economy is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2012, to be followed by a few more quarters of falling output, entering a technical, recession, the Institute for Market Economics (IME) has forecast.

This would be the second recession in Bulgaria in just three years.

Tumbling levels of exports and industrial production show that Bulgaria‘s economy is already feeling the chill from the euro zone, according to the experts.

This has left domestic demand as the major driving factor behind the economy, but expectations are that it will remain subdued due to a rising unemployment rate and a drop in investments.

Economists say the most troubling indicator is that in the period January -February2012, the total value of the exported goods reached almost BGN 5.7 B, down by 6.1% on an annual basis.

Bulgarian exports to third countries also decreased, marking a 2.6%  fall compared to the corresponding period of the previous year and amounted to BGN 2.3 B.

Exports, which used to be the driver behind Bulgaria‘s recovery, are slumping and in the best possible scenario can record a negligible growth or remain flattish, according to analysts’ forecasts.

A mix of global slow-down, restricted financing and withdrawing investors have brought Bulgaria‘s construction sector to a stalemate and according to the analysts it has been sliding ever more firmly into negative territory for the fourth year in a row with little hope for revival in the short term.

Bulgaria‘s retail market continues to be on a downward trend, despite the retail concentration within malls, which have taken the role of new urban shopping, and leisure centers over the last couple of years.

Data on the visits of foreign tourists in February did not bring the expected joy either. The number of foreign travelers here was down by about 3% on an annual basis after a year and a half of healthy growth. The figures dampened the sector’s hopes that the excellent conditions for skiing in February will attract many foreign tourists.

Bulgaria‘s economy expanded by 1.7% in 2011.

Growth slowed down to 1.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, curbed by slumpingexports, according to data of the statistics institute.

The European Union newcomer entered recession for the first time in the first quarter of 2009 with its economy shrinking 5% from January to March 2009 and contracting 1.6% in the fourth quarter 2008 on a quarterly basis.

In the first quarter of 2009 Bulgaria‘s GDP marked a 3,5%  drop on an annual basis for the first time since the financial and economic crisis in 1997 and the slump was much sharper than macroeconomists’ forecasts.

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Bulgaria‘s jobless rate in will continue to increase in 2012 as the economy hovers on the brink of its second recession in three years in the wake of the slump in theeuro zone, analysts have warned.

The unemployment rate stood at 11.5% last month with the total number of people who are unemployed towering to 376 171, up by 10,000 over the previous month, data of the Employment Agency shows.

The threshold of 10% is considered by employers and economists to be a sign of an upcoming deterioration in the purchasing power and labor market.

The majority of the people, who were laid off, worked in the industry, trade or construction sectors.

Sofia city remains the location with the lowest unemployment rate. The cities where finding a job is very difficult are Smolyan, Targovishte, Montana and Shumen.

Bulgaria‘s economy is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2012, to be followed by a few more quarters of falling output, entering a technical, recession, the Institute for Market Economics (IME) has forecast.

This would be the second recession in Bulgaria in just three years.

Tumbling levels of exports and industrial production show that Bulgaria‘s economy is already feeling the chill from the euro zone, according to the experts.

This has left domestic demand as the major driving factor behind the economy, but expectations are that it will remain subdued due to a rising unemployment rate and a drop in investments.

Bulgaria‘s government and the European Commission recently revised downwards their forecast for the economy of the Balkan country, estimating it is to grow 1.4% this year due to worsening growth prospects in key trading partners across Europe and stagnant domestic demand.

Bulgaria‘s economy expanded by 1.7% in 2011.

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Bulgarian consumers‘ sentiments continue to trend downwards as prices of staple foods hit record highs, a survey shows.

There was no hope for higher incomes among Bulgarians in the first quarter of 2012, while fuel prices remained the main factor for inflation, according to a poll, conducted by market research institute GfK.

Consumers are afraid that the prices of electricity and transport services will also rise and will contribute to increasing inflation.

Bulgarians are also very much concerned about a looming rise in unemploymentrate, which currently stands at about 11%, but is expected to hit 19% by the end of the year.

The survey was conducted in Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, France and the Czech Republic. The 12 countries represent about 80% of the total population in the 27 member states.

The survey comes on the heel of warnings that Bulgaria‘s economy may shrink drastically by 5% in the first three months of the year.

“Given the looming decline in GDP for the first quarter of 2012, we expect thebudget deficit to be significantly higher than envisaged in the budget, putting at risk public investments and the payment of pensions,” according to the BulgarianIndustrial Chamber.

It points out a number of factors, drawing the economy into negative territory, including a sharp decline in domestic consumption, industrial production,investments and increasingly negative trade balance.

The gloomy forecast comes shortly after a Sofia-based think-tank warned thatBulgaria‘s economy hovers on the brink of its second recession in three years in the wake of the slump in the euro zone.

Bulgaria‘s economy is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2012, to be followed by a few more quarters of falling output, entering a technical, recession, the Institute for Market Economics (IME) forecast at the beginning of this week.

This would be the second recession in Bulgaria in just three years.

Tumbling levels of exports and industrial production show that Bulgaria‘s economy is already feeling the chill from the euro zone, according to the experts.

This has left domestic demand as the major driving factor behind the economy, but expectations are that it will remain subdued due to a rising unemployment rate and a drop in investments.

Economists say the most troubling indicator is that in the period January -February2012, the total value of the exported goods reached almost BGN 5.7 B, down by 6.1% on an annual basis.

Bulgarian exports to third countries also decreased, marking a 2.6%  fall compared to the corresponding period of the previous year and amounted to BGN 2.3 B.

Exports, which used to be the driver behind Bulgaria‘s recovery, are slumping and in the best possible scenario can record a negligible growth or remain flattish, according to analysts’ forecasts.

A mix of global slow-down, restricted financing and withdrawing investors have brought Bulgaria‘s construction sector to a stalemate and according to the analysts it has been sliding ever more firmly into negative territory for the fourth year in a row with little hope for revival in the short term.

Bulgaria‘s retail market continues to be on a downward trend, despite the retail concentration within malls, which have taken the role of new urban shopping, and leisure centers over the last couple of years.

Data on the visits of foreign tourists in February did not bring the expected joy either. The number of foreign travelers here was down by about 3% on an annual basis after a year and a half of healthy growth. The figures dampened the sector’s hopes that the excellent conditions for skiing in February will attract many foreign tourists.

Earlier this month Bulgarian analysts and institutions unanimously cut their growth forecast for 2012 to just below 1.5% instead of the previously forecast 2-3%, citing slumping exports and stagnant domestic demand.

The central bank BNB estimated Bulgaria‘s economic growth to slow-down to 0.7% in 2012, citing the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro area.

Bulgaria‘s government and the European Commission recently revised downwards their forecast for the economy of the Balkan country, estimating it is to grow 1.4% this year due to worsening growth prospects in key trading partners across Europe and stagnant domestic demand.

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Societe Generale Expressbank is the winner in this year’s contest for Bulgaria’s “Bank of the Year“, the Bank of the Year Association has announced.

Bulgaria’s 14th annual Bank of the Year awards – first started in 1992 – were revealed at a news conference in Sofia on Wednesday in seven different categories, including the big “Bank of the Year” prize snatched by Societe Generale Expressbank.

UniCredit Bulbank, which landed the big prize last year, is now the winner in the “Client’s Bank” 2010 category, while Citibank N.A. – Sofia branch has triumphed with the award for Best Bank Branch in Bulgaria 2010.

The Corporate Commercial Bank is the winner of the “Development Dynamics Award” 2010. DSK Bank has been awarded the prize for “Efficiency”, and First Investment Bank has been granted the price for best “Market Share 2010″ performance.

The award in the brand-new category of the Bulgarian Bank of the Year Association – “Secret Client’s Prize 2010″ has been won by Raiffeisenbank.

The Bank of the Year Association’s founders feature a number of prominent Bulgarian professionals such as financier Andrey Pramov, Deloitte Bulgaria partner Silvia Peneva, Moore Stephens Bulgaria partner Stefan Nenov, the creator of the Bank of the Year prizes and long-time publisher of the economic daily “Pari” Valentin Panayotov, the top Bulgarian PR expert Maxim Behar, the economic secretary of the Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov, Ertan Kara.

The winners in the individual Bank of the Year categories are determined through the examination of a complex set of criteria and hard data provided by the Bulgarian National Bank by a number of experts including financier Andrey Pramov, the President of the Confederation of Employers and Industrialists in Bulgaria Ognyan Donev, the Chair of the Bulgarian Audit Office Prof. Valeri Dimitrov, the President of the Bulgarian Business Leaders Forum Maria Shishkova, the Director of the International Banking Institute Maria Georgieva, the CEO of the Burov Foundation Vladimir Tashkov, the Chair of Association of Industrial Capital Vasil Velev as well as HP executive Sasha Bezuhanova, and the above-mentioned Valentin Panayotov, Maxim Behar, Ertan Kara, Silvia Peneva.

The award in the “Client’s Bank” 2010 category is the exception as it has been determined through an online vote. A total of more than 45 000 votes were cast in this year’s campaign, up from some 36 000 last year, with the winner UniCredit Bulbank receiving close to 12 000 votes.

Bulgaria’s 14th Bank of the Year awards are sponsored by Konica Minolta, the Doverie Pension Security Fund, Western Union, Kamor Auto, and DHL Express.

The official ceremony for the Bulgarian Bank of the Year 2010 awards is taking Wednesday night at the Sheraton Sofia Hotel Balkan, with the participation of Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov.

The holder of the prize for 2009 was UniCredit Bulbank, and for 2008 - United Bulgarian Bank. Banks awarded in previous years were as follows: 1991 – Bank for Agricultural Credit; 1992 – Bank for Agricultural Credit; 1993 – Bulgarian Post Bank; 2000 – Bulbank; 2002 – Raiffeisenbank Bulgaria; 2003 – Raiffeisenbank Bulgaria; 2004 – DSK Bank; 2005 – United Bulgarian Bank and DSK Bank; 2006 – PostBank; 2007 – Raiffeisenbank Bulgaria.

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Bulgaria registered a negative foreign direct investment inflow of EUR 62.5 M in the first four months of 2011, according to latest data of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB).

The central bank points out that the outflow of FDI from Bulgaria is “due to net payments on intercompany credits in accordance with the loan repayment schedules of enterprises, according to preliminary data.

Thus, the foreign direct investment in Bulgaria in January-April 2011 decreased by EUR 441 M year-on-year – EUR 62.5 M (0.2% of GDP) in the first four months of 2011 compared to EUR 378.9 M (1.1% of GDP) attracted in January-April 2010.

Bulgaria’s FDI continues to collapse after the country got only EUR 1.458 B in foreign investments in 2010, and EUR 3 B in 2009, down from the peaks in 2007 (EUR 9 B), and 2008 (EUR 6 B).

The BNB data released Wednesday indicated that Bulgaria’s attracted Equity Capital (acquisition/disposal of shares and equities in cash and contributions in kind by non-residents in/from the capital and reserves of Bulgarian enterprises and receipts/payments from/for real estate deals in the country) for January – April 2011 amounted to EUR 234.7 M. It decreased by EUR 56.2 M compared to that attracted in the same period of 2010 (EUR 290.9 M).

The receipts from real estate investments of non-residents amounted to EUR 52.1 M against EUR 49.9 M in January-April 2010.

The other capital, net (the change in the net liabilities of the direct investment enterprise to the direct investor on financial loans, suppliers’ credits and debt securities) was negative, amounting to EUR 361.4 M in January-April 2011, compared to a positive other capital, net of EUR 8.6 M in January-April 2010.

Based on preliminary data on profit/loss, the Reinvested Earnings (the share of non-residents in the undistributed earnings/ loss of the enterprise) in January-April 2011 were estimated at EUR 64.2 M, against EUR 79.4 M in the same period of 2010.

By country, the largest net foreign direct investments in Bulgaria for the period January-April 2011 were those of Austria (EUR 116 M), Cyprus (EUR 46 M) and Spain (EUR 35.7 M).

The net payments to Germany, the UK and Japan amounted to EUR 108.6 M, EUR 108.3 M and EUR 50.3 M. The negative flows were mainly due to net payments on intercompany credits in accordance with the loan repayment schedules of enterprises, the BNB says.

According to preliminary data in January-April 2011, Bulgarian direct investment abroad amounted to EUR 24.5 M compared to EUR 38.8 M in January-April 2010.